US & World Economies US Economy Monetary Policy What Is the Current US Inflation Rate? By Kimberly Amadeo Updated on January 12, 2023 Reviewed by Robert C. Kelly Reviewed by Robert C. Kelly Robert Kelly is managing director of XTS Energy LLC, and has more than three decades of experience as a business executive. He is a professor of economics and has raised more than $4.5 billion in investment capital. learn about our financial review board Fact checked by Lars Peterson Sponsored by What's this? & In This Article View All In This Article What the Current Inflation Rate Means for You What Is the Inflation Target? BLS Inflation Calculator Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Photo: Tassii / Getty Images By the Numbers Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% from November to December.Year-over-year inflation stood at 6.5% in December 2022—the lowest that figure has been in more than a year.Inflation was in line with what economists expected and gave many of them a reason to believe that the peak of inflation may be behind us. The inflation rate is an important economic indicator because it tells you how quickly prices are changing. It's measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) each month. There is another measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is reported by the Census Bureau. What the Current Inflation Rate Means for You The current inflation rate tells you how quickly prices for the stuff you buy is rising (or falling). The Federal Reserve works to keep inflation in a healthy range, but it takes time for the tools to work. By watching the inflation rate, you can make some guesses about what the Federal Reserve might do to influence interest rates, up or down. Inflation influences how consumers spend money now, and their expectations about how they'll spend in the future. What Is the Inflation Target? The core inflation rate excludes the impact of volatile oil and food prices and is often tracked on a year-over-year basis. Core inflation is what the Federal Reserve is talking about when it says its target for inflation is 2%. That's the rate the bank says is needed to maintain a healthy economy. When inflation is in that healthy range (and is expected to remain there) interest rates throughout the economy are likely to also remain low enough to sustain economic growth, but not so low that the central bank can't reduce interest rates in the event of an economic slow down or recession. Note The Federal Reserve looks at the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report when it is deliberating because PCE inflation considered more reflective of true underlying inflation trends than CPI. The inflation rate hovered just below the healthy range for quite some time, but in early 2022 it was rising fast enough to cause some businesses and investors to worry. Deflation Falling prices warn of deflation. Falling prices may seem like a great thing for shoppers, but deflation often signals an impending recession. With a recession come declining wages, job losses, and big hits to many investment portfolios. As a recession worsens, so does deflation. Businesses lower their prices in an attempt to get consumers to buy their products and services. Deflation is worse than inflation, because it signals falling demand. The Federal Reserve combats deflation with expansionary monetary policy. It reduces the federal funds rate range to influence consumers to spend and banks to loan. Healthy Inflation Moderate inflation of around 2% is actually good for economic growth. Consumers are more likely to buy now rather than wait when they expect prices to rise. This spurs demand, driving prices higher. Inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Federal Reserve monitors the core inflation rate (all goods less food and energy) when it decides whether to raise the fed funds rate range. The Fed uses expansionary monetary policy by lowering its administered rates when the rate is lower than the 2% target. It lowers the fed funds rate range to boost economic growth to prevent or end a recession. The Fed uses contractionary monetary policy when it considers inflation to be rising too quickly. It raises rates to keep prices from rising more rapidly than your paycheck. Higher interest rates weaken consumer demand by making loans more expensive. That slows growth, reducing the economy's ability to create jobs. Note Inflation is usually driven by expectations of rising prices by consumers, investors, and businesses. Hyperinflation People sometimes worry that inflation will skyrocket, causing hyperinflation. They're concerned that price increases could be like those seen during the Weimar Republic in Germany. Hyperinflation is very rare because it means that prices are rising by 50% per month. BLS Inflation Calculator The BLS inflation calculator shows how inflation eats away at your purchasing power. A 2.5% inflation rate means that something that cost $100 last year would cost $102.50 this year. It also means that you'd need a 2.5% raise just to stay even. A hard-earned 3.5% raise would only be worth 1.0% in additional buying power in this situation. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) How do you hedge your portfolio against inflation? Some investors attempt to protect their portfolios from inflation by strategically allocating their funds. Gold, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and stocks are among the most common inflation hedges. But these assets don't always succeed in protecting investors, and investments can lose value at a faster rate than inflation. When does cost-push inflation occur? Cost-push inflation occurs when supplier costs increase. Suppliers pass cost increases on to customers if commodity costs or wages rise, which increases prices throughout the economy. Cost-push is one of the two primary types of inflation along with demand-pull. Demand-pull inflation occurs when consumer demand increases, such as when strong economic performance encourages consumers to spend money rather than save. Was this page helpful? Thanks for your feedback! Tell us why! Other Submit Sources The Balance uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Consumer Price Index." Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. "Why Does the Federal Reserve Aim for Inflation of 2% Over the Longer Run?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. "Consumer Price Data."