Economy Has Resumed Its Pre-Pandemic Course

Off the Charts: The Visual Says It All

Business people walking up steps

Tom Merton / Getty Images

After all the economic upheavals since 2020, one major measure of the economy is nearly back on its pre-pandemic trajectory. 

That’s according to the first estimate of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter, released this week by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The estimated annual growth rate of 2.9% puts the nation’s overall economic output just a touch below the same trajectory that the Congressional Budget Office projected back in January 2020, Jason Furman, Harvard economics professor and former top economic advisor to President Barack Obama, noted on Twitter. 

In other words, the economy is “basically back at its pre-pandemic forecast,” Furman said. 

It’s not guaranteed to stay that way, however—numerous experts have warned that the economy is likely to shrink this year and enter a recession as a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation interest rate hikes

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  1. Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Gross Domestic Product."

  2. Congressional Budget Office. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030."

  3. Twitter. "@JasonFurman 8:51 a.m., Jan. 26, 2023."

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