The Balance Today: News You Need To Know on Nov. 21, 2022

Will This Black Friday Kick Off Another Strong Holiday Shopping Season?

Large group of motion blurred people in winter coats walking in hallway with bright lights

Bim / Getty Images

It’s Thanksgiving week, and with the holiday and markets closed on Thursday, there won’t be too much to look out for by the way of economic data releases. But with the next Federal Reserve meeting less than a month away, investors have been paying close attention to comments and speeches from policymakers at the central bank as indicators of what’s to come in the next rate hike.

They’ll also be watching this week for the success of “Black Friday” which has traditionally kicked off the holiday shopping season. Typically, stores see big jumps in sales, but with inflation remaining high and some retailers reporting slowing sales, this weekend will be closely watched. If consumers don’t decide to spend as much, it will raise concerns that the economy is struggling and might be headed for a recession. That’s because roughly 70% of the U.S. economy is derived from consumer spending. If shoppers buy less, then the economy slows.

While retail sales have remained strong throughout the last couple of years (and even rose 1.3% in the month of October) several retailers have issued warnings during their quarterly earnings that they were seeing demand start to wane.

Predictions of a gloomy holiday shopping season could be a boon to those who can still afford to shop. Retailers are expected to offer record discounts this year to lure shoppers in. 

Stocks are losing ground today as investors consider the latest in earnings reports and mull over the hawkish (meaning, in favor of rate hikes) tone many Fed officials struck last week.

- Kristin

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The Balance uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.
  1. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Federal Reserve Economic Data. "Shares of Gross Domestic Product: Personal Consumption Expenditures."

  2. U.S. Census. "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, October 2022."

  3. Adobe. "Adobe Forecasts $209.7 Billion Holiday Season Online (U.S.); Cyber Monday to Top $11 Billion."

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