The Balance Today: News You Need To Know on Nov. 9, 2022

Yesterday, I wrote that markets and investors like political division. That’s because gridlock means it is difficult for any party to enact major laws and policies that could have a huge impact on businesses—like taxes. While markets like division, the one thing they don’t like is uncertainty. Investors went into election day yesterday with projections suggesting Republicans would snap up control of the House. But forecasts can be wrong, and as the dust clears after yesterday’s vote, the future of Congress is anything but clear. 

Both parties are currently neck and neck for control of the House and the Senate as the last votes get tallied. If Democrats manage to maintain control, the administration could have an easier time passing proposals like raising taxes on Big Oil and the wealthiest Americans, and making decisions on government spending and the debt ceiling.

With yesterday’s election still undecided, markets are lower as optimism from earlier this week wanes.

But even more important to markets than these election outcomes could be tomorrow’s inflation reading. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have dropped from an annual rate of 8.2% to 7.9% last month, but its still uncomfortably high. If inflation remains stubbornly high, then investors could expect that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates at an aggressive pace at its meeting next month. This would make loans more expensive, increase the likelihood of a recession, and eat away at future corporate profits—all of which will either hurt your wallet, your investments or both.

With all the uncertainty about the elections and the Fed’s future moves, you shouldn’t be too surprised if stocks whipsaw between green and red.