Will the U.S. Ever Pay Off Its Debt?

Congress has made many attempts to lower the national debt, but it hasn't been able to reduce the growth of what the nation owes. The U.S. debt is the outstanding obligation owed by the federal government.

It exceeded $31 trillion in for the first time on Oct. 4, 2022, and it has increased by at least $1 trillion each year since 2016.

What's Stopping the U.S. From Paying Down Its Debt?

Most creditors don’t worry about a nation's debt, also known as "sovereign debt," until it's more than 77% of gross domestic product (GDP). That's the point at which added debt cuts into annual economic growth, according to the World Bank.

At the end of the second quarter of 2021, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was 125%. That's much higher than the tipping point and is a concern for many. Over $22 trillion of that national debt is public debt, which is what the government owes to investors and taxpayers.

Congress places a limit on public debt. It increased the limit by $2.5 trillion in December 2021, to nearly $31.4 million.

Why isn't the U.S. eliminating its debt and paying people back? There are a few reasons.

Economic Growth Has Outpaced Its Debt

U.S. economic growth has historically outpaced its debt. The U.S. debt was $258.68 billion in August 1945, but the economy outgrew that in a few years. GDP more than doubled by 1960. Congress believes that today's debt will be dwarfed by tomorrow's economic growth.

Congress Has a Lot to Lose

Members of Congress have a lot to lose by cutting spending. They could lose their next election if they cut Social Security or Medicare benefits.

Raising Taxes Isn't Popular

Raising taxes can be politically unpopular. Experts believe that President George H.W. Bush lost reelection because he raised taxes after promising he wouldn't at the 1988 Republican convention. He raised taxes in 1990 to reduce the deficit, and voters remembered.

U.S. Debt Milestones

The national debt has grown so large over time that people notice when it hits a new high. Here are just a few milestones over the years.

Four Ways the U.S. Could Pay Off Its Debt

There are two main themes in most discussions about paying off the national debt: cutting spending and raising taxes. There are other options that might not enter most conversations but can aid in debt reduction, too.

Cut Spending

The 2010 bipartisan Simpson-Bowles report is a good example of how the government could cut spending to reduce debt. The report proposed balancing the budget through a mix of spending cuts and tax reform. Congress didn't adopt the complete plan, but the government did implement parts of it with some success.

Raise Taxes

Raising taxes can generate revenue that the government can use to pay down debt as well as invest in programs that support the economy. But it can cut into tax revenue and hurt the economy if the government raises taxes too high. Finding the correct balance is expressed by a concept known as the "Laffer Curve."

Grow the Economy Faster

Increasing the GDP has a twofold benefit: It generates extra revenue to pay down debt, and it reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio if GDP growth outpaces debt growth.

Driving economic growth is one way to reduce the national debt, but Congress tends to disagree on how to create that growth. Most Democrats push increased spending, while most Republicans champion lower taxes. However, unlimited growth is an unrealistic goal, so growth alone can't solve the federal debt.

Shift Spending

Congress could shift spending from defense to job-creation areas like infrastructure and education. Almost 15% of government spending goes to the military. But past studies indicate that money spent on the military is less effective in creating jobs than money spent in other areas.

According to a report from the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, $1 billion in education and mass transit spending could produce more than twice the jobs created by military spending. Job creation can help boost the GDP, which can help lower the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio in many cases.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)