News Number of the Day Real-Time Tracker Sees Just 0.5% GDP Growth Number of the Day: The most relevant or interesting figure in personal finance By Medora Lee Published on October 20, 2021 Fact checked by Heather van der Hoop Fact checked by Heather van der Hoop Website Heather van der Hoop (she/her) has been editing since 2010. She has edited thousands of personal finance articles on everything from what happens to debt when you die to the intricacies of down-payment assistance programs. Her work has appeared on The Penny Hoarder, NerdWallet, and more. learn about our editorial policies Photo: The Balance That’s one real-time tracker’s latest estimate for third-quarter economic growth, a fraction of the more than 6% forecasted less than three months ago and one of the starkest signs of how quickly things can change in the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which uses a mathematical model for its GDPNow economic growth forecasts, said the latest economic indicators suggest real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an annualized rate of only 0.5% in the July-to-September quarter. The fast-shrinking estimate—as high as 6.3% in early August—was 1.2% on Friday, but then two more weaker-than-expected government reports, including on new home construction, forced it down to the 0.5%. We won’t know how much GDP actually grew until the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its quarterly report on Oct. 28, but estimates have been falling right and left amid signs that a summer spike in inflation and COVID-19 cases discouraged consumer spending and supply and worker shortages persisted.(Still, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow stands out for its pessimism.) For perspective, GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.3% in the first quarter and 6.6% in the second. Note With inflation rising 5.4% in the 12 months through September, well above the Fed’s average 2% longer-term target, a weakening economy could put the Fed in a difficult position when determining the path forward for benchmark interest rates. Have a question, comment, or story to share? You can reach Medora at medoralee@thebalance.com. Was this page helpful? Thanks for your feedback! Tell us why! Other Submit Sources The Balance uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read our editorial process to learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. “GDPNow Estimate for 2021: Q3.” Federal Reserve. “Beige Book--October 20, 2021.” Page 1. Ing. “U.S. Getting Back On Track.” BMO. “North American Outlook: Economy Hits Speed Block Not Roadblock.”